Copper jumps strongly higher today and JJC moved above 39.21, the bull-bear line in the sand, supplying bull fuel, but, a short time ago, JJC falls back below 39.21, taking the steam out of the market upside. VIX moved above 13 to provide hope for market bears, moving towards the 14.19 bull-bear line in the sand, but volatility reversed and now continues to tumble lower to help the bull case. Volatility and copper are the two main drivers of market direction today. Watch JJC 39.21 (now at 39.06 causing market bearishness) and VIX 14.19 (now 12.69 causing market bullishness). The give and take of these two parameters will move the markets. TRIN is 0.71, bullish. With the Fed maintaining lower volatility and low TRIN, the upside market party continues.
The SPX prints a new all-time high today at 1697.61. Watch to see if the bulls can print a new all-time closing high today above 1692.09, or not. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bulls are cruising these days receiving upside energy from Chairman Bernanke's Congressional Testimony last week. The full moon hits in an hour and even this esoteric market indicator hints at buoyant markets through today. Everything is going the bull's way these days. However, as shown with the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts, the SPXA150R, and NYMO, as well as the overall look of the SPX series of charts just posted, a market top is likely very near, either any day forward or perhaps within two weeks time. Utilities are weak today and this is a sector the bulls need to march equities to the lofty target numbers that analysts are touting. Watch JJC 39.21 closely. Bulls will be unable to move equities higher unless JJC moves above 39.21 and higher. NFLX reports after the closing bell and will set the tone for tech tomorrow.
Note Added 1:26 PM: Oil just took a dive. Keystone took profits on SCO exiting the trade. Will look to reenter, SCO should have plenty more upside ahead (oil lower).
Note Added 1:28 PM: SPX is at 1694 so this will start to curl the 8 MA on the 30-minute chart lower as discussed above and perhaps the negative divergence highlighted on the charts is starting to have an affect. JJC 39.05. VIX 12.70. TRIN 0.74.
Note Added 7/23/13 at 7:07 AM: JJC stays under 39.21 so that marked the top in the SPX yesterday just before lunch near 1698. Bulls keep the markets buoyant by continuing to beat volatility lower. VIX is crushed to 12.29. TRIN ends at an uber bullish 0.73 now closing under one for eight consecutive days. TRIN needs to snap back and print above one to relieve all this uber bullish euphoria. The TRIN also printed many days of sub-one numbers in the first half of May which led to higher TRIN numbers above one in late May and June, in concert with the markets selling off. The SPX closes at a new all-time high at 1695.53 and new all-time intraday high at 1697.61.
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